There are many 2012 retail holiday forecasts that range from weak to strong sales estimates. One of the more optimistic forecasts is from the Platt Retail Institute: “This year’s holiday retail sales forecasts are out. Most are conservative, looking for a 3-4 percent sales increase. Compare this to last year’s increase of 5.6 percent. PRI is a bit more optimistic than most. We look for a 4.4-4.8 percent increase. The difference between the consensus forecast, on the one hand, and that of PRI, on the other, is a matter of perspective. We believe that most forecasts are overly conservative due to a focus on macro-economic factors. On the other hand, PRI has taken more of a bottom-up approach, as summarized here.”

Let’s see who turns out to be right.

Click the chart to learn more from Platt.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau